Economic fundamentals are not flawed, but kept hidden

25. January 2012 · Write a comment · Categories: Uncategorized · Tags: , ,

National Bureau of Statistics released on 17 January 2011, national economic situation, the initial estimates, annual GDP 47.1564 trillion yuan, according to constant prices, increased 9.2% over the previous year.
Sub-quarter view, the first quarter of 2011 grew 9.7%, 9.5% growth in the second quarter, third quarter growth of 9.1%, fourth quarter growth of 8.9%. Operation from the annual economic growth rate gradually declined to see the trend is clear, it is worried about public opinion, China’s economy in 2012 increased downward pressure on economic growth fundamentals will be affected.
Macroeconomic conditions on the evaluation last year, the National Bureau of Statistics, Mr. Ma said that in 2011, the depth of the impact of the international financial crisis continues, the recovery in developed economies struggling euro zone sovereign debt crisis still continue to ferment and spread of emerging economies declining growth rate and inflation are intertwined. In this environment, the realization of China’s economic growth rate of 9.2%, 5.4% of the price control in the general level, “It is not easy.”
He believes that 2011 GDP growth gradually declined, and is the result of active control, “if our national economy to maintain the rate of 8.5% -9%, and prices can be better controlled, mode change faster than the structural adjustment is relatively large, it may be a more ideal overall macroeconomic situation. ”
In fact, China’s economic situation to determine whether the health statistics can be found from several criteria. First look at the real economy of operation. 2011 National-scale industrial added value at constant prices increased by 13.9% over the previous year. Sub-sectors, 39 categories line up all the added value of positive growth. From January to November last year, the national-scale industrial enterprises realized profits of 4.6638 trillion yuan, an increase of 24.4%. Among the 39 major industries, 36 industry profits are growing year on year, three industry profits fell. From this set of data can be seen, the operation of the real economy last year is normal, and the growth speed is not slow.

Secondly, last year, power generation grew by 12.0%, 12.3% growth in steel, cement, up 16.1%, 10 kinds of nonferrous metals increased by 10.6%, up 7.4% ethylene, 3.0% vehicle growth, which cars increased 5.9%. Although the impact of regional policy by the parts, car a greater decline in growth rate over the previous year, but the industry needs to reflect the performance of normal power and demand for raw materials, which is an indirect proof of the economy is still healthy range.
Finally, from the demand, last year’s total investment in fixed assets (excluding farmers) 23.8% nominal growth, real growth of 16.1%; nominal growth in total retail sales of social consumer goods 17.1%, 11.6% real growth; all annual import and export volume grew 22.5%, with exports up 20.3% and imports up 24.9%.

Therefore, the current economy situation, the fundamentals did not obviously flawed. Mr. Ma also said that “China’s urbanization, industrialization, the market process is not the end, the fundamental driving force of China’s economic growth pattern has not changed, the Chinese economy still in the normal growth range, long-term development of the basic pattern has not changed.”
However, the anticipated economic environment in 2012, there are still many uncertainties risk. First, the long-term inflation pressures still exist. Last year, consumer prices rose 5.4%. Among them, the main driving force leading to rising prices of food, its price rose 11.8%, which is a tremendous impact on low-income residents.

 

Second, the enterprise funds are still tight, production and management is still difficult. State Council Development Research Center of Enterprise Research Institute recently released the “China Enterprise Development Report 2012,” also believes that in 2012 Chinese enterprises since the beginning of this century may be the “most difficult” period. The director of Zhaochang Wen said the world economic situation will remain grim in general complex, international market demand growth is likely to continue to slow domestic economic growth may further correction, to be covered in a variety of rapid growth will continue to highlight the contradictions. Chinese enterprises will face weak demand in both domestic and foreign markets, soaring labor costs, raw material prices continued to rise, land supply has become tighter, the appreciation of the yuan, to further increase the cost of environmental protection and many other challenges.
Third, the international situation is extremely complicated, sluggish economy, resulting in China’s economic operation of the external environment is very severe.
“Internal factors: property control policies, the central end of a large investment, monetary policy tightening after the over-generous; external: European debt crisis, the U.S. economic recovery, uncertainty, and the slowdown in emerging market economies and other issues, have made China uncertain economic environment. “Tsinghua University, China and the World Economy Research Center, Yuan Gangming the reporter said:” The future economic growth will continue for some time declining trend, which is to be expected. ”
Mr. Ma also stressed that the international and domestic environment for the economy in 2012 has added many uncertainties to scientific macro adds a lot of difficulty, so we have a sense of crisis in 2012, should get more difficult to that the initiatives to deal with a more thoughtful point.

China’s economic stride forward in the bush

21. January 2012 · Write a comment · Categories: Uncategorized · Tags: , ,

Relative to world economic chaos, has risen for the world’s second largest economy, “the scenery here is good,” China is also facing many problems. Regulation of prices, private lending crisis, RMB appreciation, tax reform, 10 million units of affordable housing by building, as well as high-speed rail and other construction projects in China in 2011 a shortage of funds into financial remarkable event.

Difficult economy facing severe challenges ahead

“Prices continue to run high in 2011 China’s economy is facing the biggest test.” This is the financial and securities of Wuhan University of Technology, Institute of Directors board new ideas.

10 months of 2011, China’s CPI growth rate has been high. Among them, pork prices in the CPI in July, driven by impulse to 6.5% of the peak year, to hikes in August before weakening in the next step by step down. In order to counter inflationary pressures, the central bank increased six times the first half of the deposit reserve ratio, up to 21.5% of the historical peak, but since then has continued to increase CPI hit a new high. To November, CPI rise was down significantly to 4.2%, while the one-year yuan deposit rate was only 3.5%, resulting in a lot of money to escape negative interest rates savings bank, as much over the past 11 months, three months residents’ deposits appeared less Some negative growth, the residents fled deposits also the breeding ground for the proliferation of private lending.

Wenzhou usury crisis, making the private lending crisis in the financial field in 2011 has become a remarkable event. Side is the cheap money the banking system, on the other side is outside the banking system, a variety of disguised usury. Deposits of negative interest rates, cost of capital “dual system” and other investment channels for a single reason together, a direct result of a dangerous asset bubbles. For example, Jiangsu Sihong “BMW,” and the national lending eventually turned into a “national debt collection”, Wenzhou some bosses can not settle loan sharks and “on foot”, and even some bank loans and disguised by the Trust in trust management, etc. lending game .

RMB appreciation, tax reform and local debt in 2011 financial crisis is also noteworthy event.

Although the spot exchange rate of the RMB continuous trigger limit, but still a long period since 2005, the appreciation of the channel. In early November of this year, the RMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar hit a record 6.31 yuan. The currency appreciation to reduce China’s export competitiveness, labor-intensive, low value-added features of China’s export enterprises for the tough days. 2011 year on year growth rate of China’s Customs month exports dropped significantly compared with 2010, foreign exchange surplus declined significantly even since the emergence of 46 months of negative growth.

In 2011, the National People’s Congress voted to adopt a personal income tax law on amending the decision to the tax threshold to 3,500 yuan. After adjusting for the number of working-class taxpayers from the 84 million people reduced to 24 million. The reform of the tax cuts far more than the previous adjustment.

Local debt precarious platform, has become a concern in 2011 a hot topic. No matter how local governments ‘land’, is still not enough money to spend. According to data released by the National Audit Office, as of the end of 2010, the national local government debt balances 10.717491 trillion yuan, of which the government bears the responsibility to repay the debt accounted for 62.62%; government bears responsibility for or guarantees the debt accounted for 21.80%; government may bear some responsibility for other debt relief accounted for 15.58%. Which in 2011, the debt due for repayment in 2012 accounted for 24.49%, 17.17%. Sources from the borrower to see the end of 2010 the balance in local government debt, bank loans of about 8.5 trillion yuan, accounting for 79%.

“High mid-term local debt to become the largest of China’s economic systemic risk.” CIC Securities told China Daily reporter XING slightly.

“Vigorously promote the protection of housing construction is most proud of the Chinese government in 2011.” China Daily reporter found that the previous real estate, housing the slightest signs of decline, the Government will relax. The reason is that real estate is not only an important source of local revenue, and more than 40 contacts with the upstream and downstream industries, real estate, a decline in these industries will be affected, thus affecting employment. And this despite the volume of commercial housing price or the emergence of the phenomenon, but the government still insists on control means does not relax, the reason is that the Government in 2011 to protect 10 million units of housing starts. Obviously the government is to protect the room with the decline in real estate to offset the incremental impact on the economy. However, the protection of housing and high-speed rail funds are insufficient to offset some of the GDP.

Expansion of domestic demand careful control while maintaining stability

“Maintaining stability”, which is the just-concluded Central Economic Work Conference set the overall tone of economic work in 2012.

According to experts, the interpretation of the so-called “stability” is to maintain a stable macroeconomic policies to maintain stable and rapid economic development and maintain the basic stability of general price level, maintaining overall social stability. The so-called “progress” is to continue to seize and important strategic opportunities for China’s development period,

Changes in the way of economic development in the new progress made in deepening reform and opening up new breakthroughs in improving the livelihood of the people to achieve new results. The “progress”, the central emphasis is to speed up structural adjustment and economic restructuring; “progress” is the core of expanding domestic demand, and effectively improve the proportion of final consumption in the national economy.

Some analysts believe that the current economic structure is an important issue is the lack of consumer demand, economic growth, over-reliance on investment and export demand. Last year, China’s investment rate rose to a record level of 48.6% over the previous year and increased 1.1 percentage points, and the final consumption rate for the first time less than the investment rate, only 47 percent. This means that last year we have produced nearly half is used to expand production, the people spending even less than the investment, this structure is extremely distorted in the state, is not sustainable.

Stimulating economic growth in the troika, because of weak growth in Europe and America led China’s exports will fall, long-term support for high growth in China’s foreign trade, the future role in boosting the economy will weaken, China’s economic growth eventually will rely on domestic demand.

“Domestic demand including consumption and investment spending in China has great potential for the Central that” maintaining stability “, the most reliable way to increase consumption, because consumption growth is different from the investment of the biggest advantage is stable. Investment may fluctuate wildly, if the consumer really inspire them, then you can maintain a stable long-term economic growth. “State Council Development Research Center, deputy director of finance Ba case to answer media questions.

The expansion of consumption, tax cuts next year will play a relatively good results. Reduce the tax burden of SMEs and residents, can provide some support for the consumer. In addition, China may develop consumer credit, and cultivate new consumption hot spots and other ways to expand the population of final consumption. Culture, leisure, automotive and other consumer market still has much room for growth, in reasonable control of the premise, the housing needs of the residents should also be better met.

Experts believe that next year may be appropriate to expand the scale of fiscal expenditure, on this basis should increase investment in the field of livelihood, put more emphasis on the effect of people’s livelihood. Spending on the people’s livelihood, on the one hand to pay more attention to the effect, such as education spending, but should be considered to be fair, emphasis on rural, migrant workers’ children’s school; the other hand, attention must also be sustainable, taking into account our country’s future will be entered aging society.

“Only the size of people’s livelihood and benefits of investing to improve, and increase the income of residents, reducing the burden on the people of the community, enhance their sense of stability for the future, the expansion of consumption in order to have a foundation.”

Economic fundamentals are not flawed, but kept hidden

21. January 2012 · Write a comment · Categories: Uncategorized · Tags: , ,

National Bureau of Statistics released on 17 January 2011, national economic situation, the initial estimates, annual GDP 47.1564 trillion yuan, according to constant prices, increased 9.2% over the previous year.
Sub-quarter view, the first quarter of 2011 grew 9.7%, 9.5% growth in the second quarter, third quarter growth of 9.1%, fourth quarter growth of 8.9%. Operation from the annual economic growth rate gradually declined to see the trend is clear, it is worried about public opinion, China’s economy in 2012 increased downward pressure on economic growth fundamentals will be affected.
Macroeconomic conditions on the evaluation last year, the National Bureau of Statistics, Mr. Ma said that in 2011, the depth of the impact of the international financial crisis continues, the recovery in developed economies struggling euro zone sovereign debt crisis still continue to ferment and spread of emerging economies declining growth rate and inflation are intertwined. In this environment, the realization of China’s economic growth rate of 9.2%, 5.4% of the price control in the general level, “It is not easy.”
He believes that 2011 GDP growth gradually declined, and is the result of active control, “if our national economy to maintain the rate of 8.5% -9%, and prices can be better controlled, mode change faster than the structural adjustment is relatively large, it may be a more ideal overall macroeconomic situation. ”
In fact, China’s economic situation to determine whether the health statistics can be found from several criteria. First look at the real economy of operation. 2011 National-scale industrial added value at constant prices increased by 13.9% over the previous year. Sub-sectors, 39 categories line up all the added value of positive growth. From January to November last year, the national-scale industrial enterprises realized profits of 4.6638 trillion yuan, an increase of 24.4%. Among the 39 major industries, 36 industry profits are growing year on year, three industry profits fell. From this set of data can be seen, the operation of the real economy last year is normal, and the growth speed is not slow.

Secondly, last year, power generation grew by 12.0%, 12.3% growth in steel, cement, up 16.1%, 10 kinds of nonferrous metals increased by 10.6%, up 7.4% ethylene, 3.0% vehicle growth, which cars increased 5.9%. Although the impact of regional policy by the parts, car a greater decline in growth rate over the previous year, but the industry needs to reflect the performance of normal power and demand for raw materials, which is an indirect proof of the economy is still healthy range.
Finally, from the demand, last year’s total investment in fixed assets (excluding farmers) 23.8% nominal growth, real growth of 16.1%; nominal growth in total retail sales of social consumer goods 17.1%, 11.6% real growth; all annual import and export volume grew 22.5%, with exports up 20.3% and imports up 24.9%.

Therefore, the current economy situation, the fundamentals did not obviously flawed. Mr. Ma also said that “China’s urbanization, industrialization, the market process is not the end, the fundamental driving force of China’s economic growth pattern has not changed, the Chinese economy still in the normal growth range, long-term development of the basic pattern has not changed.”
However, the anticipated economic environment in 2012, there are still many uncertainties risk. First, the long-term inflation pressures still exist. Last year, consumer prices rose 5.4%. Among them, the main driving force leading to rising prices of food, its price rose 11.8%, which is a tremendous impact on low-income residents.

 

Second, the enterprise funds are still tight, production and management is still difficult. State Council Development Research Center of Enterprise Research Institute recently released the “China Enterprise Development Report 2012,” also believes that in 2012 Chinese enterprises since the beginning of this century may be the “most difficult” period. The director of Zhaochang Wen said the world economic situation will remain grim in general complex, international market demand growth is likely to continue to slow domestic economic growth may further correction, to be covered in a variety of rapid growth will continue to highlight the contradictions. Chinese enterprises will face weak demand in both domestic and foreign markets, soaring labor costs, raw material prices continued to rise, land supply has become tighter, the appreciation of the yuan, to further increase the cost of environmental protection and many other challenges.
Third, the international situation is extremely complicated, sluggish economy, resulting in China’s economic operation of the external environment is very severe.
“Internal factors: property control policies, the central end of a large investment, monetary policy tightening after the over-generous; external: European debt crisis, the U.S. economic recovery, uncertainty, and the slowdown in emerging market economies and other issues, have made China uncertain economic environment. “Tsinghua University, China and the World Economy Research Center, Yuan Gangming the reporter said:” The future economic growth will continue for some time declining trend, which is to be expected. ”
Mr. Ma also stressed that the international and domestic environment for the economy in 2012 has added many uncertainties to scientific macro adds a lot of difficulty, so we have a sense of crisis in 2012, should get more difficult to that the initiatives to deal with a more thoughtful point.

China can achieve economic growth this year, 8.5%

16. January 2012 · Write a comment · Categories: Uncategorized · Tags: , ,

State Council Development Research Center of Macroeconomic Research Department January 14, Yu Bin, School of Economics at Peking University, Zhongguancun capital market research will be co-sponsored institutions such as “2012 Forum on China’s capital growth,” said the general, overall demand growth in 2012 will face downward pressure, does not occur if the global financial crisis, the domestic real estate market trends generally stable, China can still achieve 8.5% economic growth. 　　Yu Bin said that China’s long-term conditions to maintain the 7% -8% economic growth; economic growth, moderate decline, demand will help curb the shortage caused by over-expansion and inflation, and promoting the industry, mergers and acquisitions and accelerate the pace of structural adjustment, contribute to the progressive and the “second five” plan to determine the 7% economic growth target of convergence. In his view, investment, industrial growth fell, the decline in economic growth is inevitable; decline in potential growth, the expansion policy and the growth rate can not be pulled, it will accumulate new risks. 　　For the central economic work conference of the overall tone of economic work in 2012 is “maintaining stability”, Yu Bin believes that central government should be based on the current macro-economic operation in China exports, investment growth potential economic growth rate began to decline and fall of the reality put forward. 　　After 30 years of rapid growth, has entered the rapid growth of late, China’s economic fundamentals are changing. Growth rate of the callback round, to some extent, indicates that the decline in potential growth rate. Affect the potential growth rate decline of the main factors are: demographic changes, changes in labor supply and demand, technology introduction, digestion and absorption of space is reduced, the potential decline in infrastructure investment, changes in the pattern of regional growth, growth in the east come down significantly. 　　Looking economic situation in 2012, Yu Bin expected, investment and financing platform will usher in the peak concentration of repayment, to pay some areas may face some pressure; China’s economy has a significant speed and efficiency characteristics, when growth slowed, the problem of excess capacity highlights, some industries may be a larger area of loss; increased risk of the real estate market, if prices decreased substantially, banks, local governments are facing huge financial pressure; non-standard combination of private lending and the bubble economy, once the capital chain fracture, may lead to greater impact. 　　2012, the debt crisis by the United States and Europe, the world economic situation become more complex, uncertain factors increased significantly. Contraction of domestic demand and short-term and long-term potential growth rate decreased superimposed, downward pressure on economic growth. To this end, Yu Bin recommendations, fiscal, monetary policy should focus on preventing the economy plummeting, enhance flexibility and efforts to resolve a variety of risks, the risk of occurrence of extreme good response plan. At the same time, the real estate market healthy, stable development; to accelerate the improvement of affordable housing-related systems; effectively increase the power, water conservancy, transportation and other infrastructure investment; crack the financing problems of SMEs; actively promote the structural tax cuts.

Economic data released today, seven institutions predict impact on the market

12. January 2012 · Write a comment · Categories: Uncategorized · Tags: , ,

Galaxy Securities

CPI rose 4.3% expected

Galaxy Securities: Analysis view, in December 2011 the chain CPI was mainly due to sharp rise in food prices rose sharply near the Spring Festival. And food prices, accelerate the rate of increase of vegetables, eggs, aquatic products, meat, edible oil and other prices are rising momentum. CPI is expected in December year on year growth rate of about 4.3%, volatility of 4.2% -4.4% range. Impact of 3.7 percentage points which hikes, additional factors 0.6 percentage points. In addition, in January this year the situation will still be seasonal price rise.

Guoxin Securities

CPI is expected to rise 3.97%

Guoxin Securities: expected December CPI was 3.97%. One food chain rose 0.83 percent, up 8.64% year on year, by the cold weather, December 2011, prices of vegetables rose sharply, the chain of up to 11.65%, posing a substantial down in December CPI to continue the main reason. Non-food chain up 0%, up 1.90% year on year.

Founder Securities

CPI rose 4.0% expected

Founder Securities (601,901, stock it): Estimated non-food CPI in December, or chain growth will remain low, an increase to 2.0%; December CPI food prices rose 0.8% year on year growth to 8.7%; 12 May CPI rose 0.3% year on year growth to 4.0%. Affected by seasonal factors and festive, January 2012 and February prices will continue to slow down the speed. PPI is expected in December were down 0.4%, PPI fell 1.5% year on year growth rate, or.

Moderator: General Brokers forecast data, research institutions expected the CPI for December was 4.0%, the expected value of PPI was 2.1%, the expected value of the fourth quarter GDP was 8.6%. Then, the data on the performance of today’s market will be affected?

Investment Securities

Spread to the strong cyclical sectors

Investment Securities (600,999, stock it): the early improvement in liquidity, the real economy data is not so important, because the real economy is a lagging indicator; the first half of liquidity-based stabilization of six months to determine the trend of Panasonic, the index may be inverted U-shaped is greater. Rally large-cap stocks from the banking and real estate, and gradually began to spread to the strong cycle industry, the final consumer and small-cap stocks will rebound.

Times the new advisory

Cover upward gap

Times the new advisory: economic data released today is not much substantive effect on the market. However, considering the practice, each day of the publication of economic data have some market volatility, especially in this market is in a strong rebound after the shock. On the Shanghai Composite Index, the stock today, there may be a new high, but the day still do not adjust, because the 2290-point upward gap can cover, but after covering the broader market will continue to maintain a small rebound in the second wave callback .

World-based investment

Poised to rebound after a brief

World-based investment: December macroeconomic data-intensive new release will bring short-term market uncertainties, short-term focus on today’s inflation data are in line with expectations. Shanghai Composite Index is expected in 2300 after the area is still poised to rebound after a brief overstating space.

Nexis Securities

Indirect increase in short-term oriented

Nexis Securities: see atmosphere has increased the market, both long and short divergence. Hind, New Year’s index will show a detour upward trend, investors can take advantage of stock callback Qingcang occasion bargain intervention, mainly operating on the short-term, do not go on fighting.

 

Toward economic policy choices hot trend

07. January 2012 · 1 comment · Categories: Uncategorized · Tags: , ,

Beijing, Dec. 25 hearing in the new year dawn, by the State Council Development Research Center, academic advising, China Economic Times and the China Economic News Network’s “Third China Economic Outlook Forum” opened in Beijing today. meeting, the forum’s theme is “2012 China’s development opportunities and policy options.” NPC Vice Chairman Lu Yongxiang, Vice Chairman of CPPCC Chen Zongxing, vice chairman of the Tenth National People’s Congress, China’s Next Generation Working Committee Director Gu attended the forum. Li Wei, director of the State Council Development Research Center, participated in and addressed the forum. Health Minister Chen Zhu, China’s central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan, Central Financial Work Leading Group Office of the Deputy Director Yang Weimin, vice chairman of NPC Financial and Economic Committee, People’s Bank of China Wu Xiaoling, former vice president delivered a keynote speech or presentation. Deputy Director of the State Council Development Research Center, Liu Shijin, Hou Yunchun, Lu Zhongyuan, Han Jun, Tianjin Municipal Committee, Vice Mayor Cui Jindu, Vice Governor of Shandong Province, Jia Wan-chi, Guizhou Province, Vice Chairman of the ultra-left is also scheduled to participate in the forum and delivered speeches. Forum by the party secretary of the State Council Development Research Center of the Central Financial Work Leading Group Office of the Deputy Director Liu He chaired the meeting. State Council Development Research Center of party members, the General Office of the Director Zhang to expand participation in the Forum. The scholars on the development trend of China’s economy in 2012 and long-term development strategy for in-depth discussions and put forward policy recommendations. From the State Council ministries, provinces and cities of the leaders, experts, entrepreneurs, and media of the nearly 700 reporters from more than attended the forum. This afternoon, also held the agriculture, automotive, pharmaceutical, building materials, five sub-culture forum. 　　Li Wei said in his speech, 2012, the economy faces serious domestic and international situation is very complex. From an international perspective, prospects for world economic development will face three major problems: First, political cycles, business cycles, superimposed on the three regional turmoil, many conflicts and escalating a conflict of interest; the second is more difficult for international coordination and cooperation; third economic restructuring and the obvious short-term policy goals conflict. Governments of developed countries by debt-scale high pressure to reduce the fiscal deficit and other factors, for the short-term emergency of the storm, it is difficult to effectively implement major structural changes. Overall world economic outlook is not optimistic. From a domestic perspective, this year, the overall steady economic development, economic growth stimulated by the policy began to shift their own growth. Economic growth in capacity has been enhanced endogenous  economic growth is expected over 9 per cent, continued to maintain a steady and rapid development momentum. But the outlook in 2012, by the international market downturn, energy resources, competition, trade protectionism, and many other factors become more prominent, export growth will be significantly reduced, does not rule out the possibility of significant volatility; the expansion of domestic demand growth is stimulated by the policy start shifted to the market, but the foundation is very strong, domestic demand and external demand to make up for the task is arduous; reasonable prices further to achieve the target return regulation, a period of time may be major changes in the structure of supply and demand, real estate investment growth may be reduced; business short-term difficulties, especially the development of SMEs is difficult to fundamentally change manufacturing investment growth may be significantly reduced. Expected economic growth will continue to be a callback. Total money supply is still too large, combined with cost-push type and other factors, inflationary pressures still can not be ignored. To achieve steady growth, control prices, adjust the structure and improve people’s task very difficult. 　　For 2012, facing the complicated domestic and international situation, Li Wei stressed that next year to co-ordinate a good grasp of steady growth, control prices, the relationship between structural adjustment. 　　First, risk prevention and control should be strengthened to prepare, maintain continuity and stability of macroeconomic policies, enhance the relevance, flexibility and forward-looking, timely response and resolve shocks and prevent big fluctuations in economic growth, efforts to maintain economic steady and rapid development momentum. Secondly, the “control price” and “steady growth” are closely linked. Relatively stable economic growth, the total supply and total demand roughly in balance, the general price level can not be increased significantly. This year, we have made ​​in controlling inflation, significant results, but the total money supply is still too large. Therefore, the “control price” on the one hand to continue to consolidate the existing achievements, to prevent excessive price increases; the other hand, also according to domestic and international economic realities and conditions, to grasp the “control price” objective laws of economic development and the inevitable effect of uniform prices, an appropriate increase in the tolerance of price increases, the price mechanism reform for the reserved space. Third, the adjustment to the way the structure is the main direction and the key is to develop new competitive advantages, new impetus to the formation of growth, long-term stable and rapid economic development in a fundamental way. Through steady growth, control prices for the creation of the necessary structural adjustment, relaxed conditions, through effective structural adjustment, promote change, to mention efficiency, increase efficiency, create a truly fundamental to a long period of economic health and sustainable development prospects. See today’s newspaper  speech) 　　has just concluded Central Economic Work Conference to determine the next year’s macroeconomic “maintaining stability” of the overall tone of the Central Financial Work Leading Group Office of the Deputy Director Yang Weimin said in his speech, and seek progress in accordance with this economic operation of the decision, the past 11 months, economic indicators, we achieve the “five” a good start. This year’s economic growth may be lower than last year, but growth was mainly achieved by the independent, next year will continue the proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy. 2012 China’s economy to achieve “maintaining stability” need to grasp the three points: First, stabilization policies, domestic and international economic situation does not occur in a fundamental change in circumstances, not the direction of macroeconomic policy adjustments bigger; Second, we must improve the policy enhance the control of targeted, flexible and forward-looking, in the macro-control efforts, rhythm and focus, etc., based on economic conditions change, appropriate and timely fine-tuning; third, balanced, good handling between the objectives relations, including growth and price, time and task time of the target balance, stability and progress of the balance. 　　Vice chairman of NPC Financial and Economic Committee, People’s Bank of China Wu Xiaoling, former vice president further elaborated in his speech, the orientation of macro-economic policies next year. She said that China’s economic slowdown in 2012 is an inevitable trend, because the international situation and China’s economic cycle have undergone great changes. U.S. economic recovery in the growth rate is low, into a mild recession in Europe, emerging markets dragged down by the U.S. and Europe in slowing growth. Potential growth rate of China’s economy has experienced in the 1980s, Deng Xiaoping’s southern tour speech in 2000, after China’s WTO accession three peaks, from the third quarter of 2007, rapid economic growth began to fall into a cyclical adjustment stage, institutional reform The dividend has been enjoyed in over 30 years, the next round of economic growth can not rely on the existing structure to promote, but should rely on the system changes and advances in technology. The world economy and China’s economy has proved over-expansionary fiscal policy and monetary policy will affect the healthy development of the real economy. In determining the policy mix in the next year will be more and more to use the deposit reserve ratio means that if next year the increase in foreign exchange is too small or fall, the central bank must deposit reserve ratio by the release of liquidity, the currency shift, Of course, if a decline next year successive deposit reserve ratio, does not mean that the policy shift. 　　Deputy Director of the State Council Development Research Center, Liu Shijin for next year’s macro-economic “uncertainty” published insights. He believes that the next few years China’s economic growth rate, by the rapid growth into the slow growth, is a high probability of the event. Estimated three to five years, the Chinese economy may be transferred to 6% -7% of medium-speed growth phase. Transferred to the high growth phase in the growth rate under the uncertainty of economic activity greatly increased. Whether government or business, making the possibility of errors greater than in the past three years any period of time. Because in the past three decades we are catching-up economy, we are taking the others down the road. Through three decades later, the relatively high growth period end, the path is very difficult to catch up. Future industries and enterprises will enter large-scale adjustment. In the adjustment process of restructuring, the global industrial system in the future, China is still the most competitive manufacturing. 　　This afternoon, also held the agriculture, automotive, pharmaceutical, building materials, five sub-culture forum. 　　Health Minister Chen Zhu, in the “bio-pharmaceutical and public health” sub-forum on security and the supply of blood products in China delivered a speech. He said that currently China’s standardized management of blood products is continuously strengthened. In 1996 China promulgated the Regulations of blood products, since 2005 doping department of the production under the supervision of blood products, raw materials in 2007 to implement quarantine period blood system, the implementation of new drugs in 2011 GMP, illegal fraud will occur manufacturers of blood given severe punishment, to protect the safety and quality of blood products. But overall, China’s growing blood products can not meet the clinical needs. He said, “1025″ period, China will strive to supply blood products than the “Eleventh Five-Year” period doubling, and the goal of achieving security can not let a shortage of drugs and hemophiliacs because of death. 　　Deputy Director of the State Council Development Research Center, Hou Yunchun in the “new building materials and the recycling economy” sub-forum on the proposed “urban mining” concept. The so-called urban mining, refers to the traditional natural mineral resources, the industrialization process of the large number of urban accumulation of waste materials that contain a mineral resource. He said the successful experience from abroad, accelerate the improvement of China’s renewable resources and recycling system, development of urban mines, is a recycling economy development model innovation. At present the development of a variety of factors to bring us many difficulties and challenges, but also to deepen the strategic adjustment of economic structure, accelerate the development pattern significant opportunities. We should fully understand the development and utilization of urban mining and importance of the great potential to increase policy support, to rationalize the system mechanism to promote technological innovation, management innovation and business model innovation. 　　Deputy Director of the State Council Development Research Center, Lu Zhongyuan in the “cultural integration and industrial upgrading” sub-forum for the characteristics of cultural industries on five points: First, have a certain relative independence. Culture or cultural industries, cultural phenomena and economic base, and the contents of a certain period of time, social development is based on independent, not what kind of economic base so it will have what kind of cultural phenomenon and cultural industries. Second, for-profit and public high degree of integration. We must take good care of profitability to promote its development and public, individual stress side is not enough. Third, a high degree of artistic and technical integration of its industry, borders no longer divide as before. Fourth, there must be a huge tolerance and freedom, so that artists and technical experts together. Fifth, the inverse of the cultural industry has a certain periodicity. If a good grasp of cultural and creative industries against the cyclical nature of the Chinese economy may avoid the ups and downs for us to have a positive effect. 　　State Council Development Research Center, deputy Renhan Jun in the “Globalization of the modern agricultural development” sub-forum with special emphasis on industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization, “three” simultaneous development. He pointed out that in the industrialization and urbanization in-depth development to proceed with the modernization of agriculture  the CPC Central Committee from the new stage of economic and social development of China’s overall situation to make a major decision. “Three” sync is a major task of modernization. Domestic and international experience has repeatedly shown that neglect of agriculture and rural areas, even at the expense of agriculture, rural areas and farmers’ interests at the cost of industrial and urban development, the inevitable decline of agriculture, rural depression, poor farmers, leading to increased social conflict, social unrest or even and backwards. The “three” of synchronization, the weak link is the modernization of agriculture. Modernization of agriculture is not only the modern means of agricultural production, including changes in agricultural systems. Promote agricultural modernization, we must focus on five major issues to resolve: First, to protect people from the country to achieve the eat eat; second is to solve the problem for farmers to get rich; third is to solve the “money come from” problem; The fourth is to solve the “migrant workers into the city” problem; five is to solve in the future, “Who farming” issue.