Analysis in January as New Year’s Day and Spring Festival, the market demand for liquidity, capital and tension, due to reduced foreign exchange for two consecutive months of base money to reduce the release of the central bank, the central bank stepped in the continuous suspension of release may be intended for the January lowering the deposit reserve ratio reserve space.
The central bank suspended all the central issue tickets.
January 4, this is the central bank issued commercial release of the announcement date, however, until January 5, the reporter still did not get the message the central voting issue. According to the China Economic Times reporter, which is the central bank since December 27, 2011 more than a week since the suspension of the central voting issue.
Vote to suspend the central issue
According to our reporter to statistics, on 22 December last year the central bank issued a three-month period of the central counting $ 1 billion, 1 December 27 issue 4 billion yuan in central bank bills, after December 29, suspended all commercial release , January 3 this year, because there is no central voting issue on New Year’s holiday, January 5, the central bank suspended continuation vote. And since December 20 last year, since the commercial release of the amounts are relatively small, maintained at 10 billion -40 billion.
Central voting issue for the central bank suspended, the Chinese vice president of Finance at Renmin University of China Zhao Xijun, Economic Times, told reporters that the M2 growth rate, size of credit and liquidity management, the central bank pay greater attention to liquidity management. Usually the central bank based on a period of time, may be due two weeks of foreign exchange changes and stepped in quantity, to decide whether to issue central bank bills.
Central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan recently talked about monetary policy in a media interview, said, “Our monetary policy adjustment has been relatively large space in 2009 year, we avoid falling into the liquidity trap operation down the years, from the money point of view of policy instruments are available loose to tight. policy trade-off is mainly in the macro-control goal itself, such as the pursuit of high employment is more the pursuit of low inflation, or more, need to re-read goal to pursue a balanced addition, uncertainty about the future changes will also affect the policy objectives. In fact, as long as the policy objectives identified in the use of monetary policy tools, the space has been relatively large, relaxation or tightening of liquidity, prices are way up or down . ”

HSBC Greater China chief economist Qu Hongbin said on January 5, deposit potential rate cut just around the corner, tax cuts, increase financial input and the security room open to private capital markets have a lot of room. He judged the short term, steady growth must increase efforts to ease monetary policy.
Standard rate cut is expected to increase deposit
January 4, SW, such as brokerage Guotai Junan study released said the central bank will likely cut in the New Year’s statutory deposit reserve ratio.
Central University of Finance and the China Banking Research Center, Guo Tian Yong interview with this reporter, said the central bank may stop issuing central bank bills in January down for the deposit reserve ratio reserve space. According to his estimates, one in January, the central bank may cut by 1 percentage point, which will bring to the market from 700 to 800 billion yuan of liquidity, market liquidity to ease tension has a positive effect.
Guo Tian Yong believes that storage precision cut main reasons are:

Coincided with the Spring Festival in January, the market demand for larger liquidity, bank lending is usually “more fierce”; the other hand, the beginning of the open market due the relatively small number of central bank bills; coupled with central bank foreign exchange to reduce the resulting release of the liquidity of commercial banks greatly reduced.

According to the State Administration of Foreign Exchange recently released data show that China’s banks on foreign exchange settlement for the first time $ 800 million deficit, which means by exchange settlement bank liquidity in the market began to release negative growth.
Sun Lijian, vice president of Fudan University economics from the perspective of the external environment, the reduced need for storage precision. He had previously said that the deposit reserve ratio may be reduced after the New Year. If you do not cut it, when the debt problem in Europe subsided, the global liquidity may come back, once again shot up commodity prices, China will face the pressure of imported inflation, but again with the means to cause the Chinese foreign exchange asset bubble continues to expand. “Now why should lower the deposit reserve ratio? Is to the future, once the flow of capital, resulting in inflationary pressures, we have a very good space for monetary policy.”
Zhao Xijun, told reporters that the situation in January each year are more specific, the intensity of a large credit, liquidity needs of commercial banks is relatively large. “Depends on whether the central bank cut deposit and precision is to maintain a steady rate of money supply, or change the previous practice of funding requirements for commercial banks to make concessions if the concessions, it may be reduced quasi-deposit ratio; If you want to maintain currency growth and stability, it may not cut. “